Politics > Perception > Performance. Has the Uttar Pradesh mandate cleared what's going to happen in 2024?

Indian parliamentary elections 2024! Every media house, almost all the journalists and even a lot of intellectuals are busy predicting the results of 2024 today, i.e two years before the parliamentary elections.

There has always been a difference between what a common man thinks, what a journalist thinks and what a political analyst thinks of any election. Today the majority of journalists are divided into left and right wings, and the remaining ones have either become psephologists or political analysts who are actually able to do a practical and unbiased pre and post-election analysis. There is a vast difference between what a common man or a left-right wing journalist analyses and what a political analyst thinks.

For example, if we talk about West Bengal where TMC under the leadership of Mamata Banerjee won around 211 seats and the BJP just 77, the pre and post-election opinions of several sections were completely divided and even contrary.

Before the elections:

Will the BJP win West Bengal this time?

1. A narrative-influenced common man:

(from outside West Bengal) 

Maybe, they are working on the ground, they had won 18 Loksabha seats, the Hindus are unhappy in Bengal, Mamata Banerjee did nothing for Bengal's development, people need a change, BJP may win.

2. A mainstream media journalist - 

There is a tough fight. BJP won 18 Lok Sabha seats and many leaders not only from the Left and Congress but even from the TMC, including Suvendu Adhikari and a few more MLAs, MPs and ex-MPs have joined the BJP, which means a clear advantage for BJP. Plus, they have the face of Modi and as per the Lok Sabha results, the public's faith in Mr. Modi's leadership has been increasing.

3. A political analyst or psephologist-

Yes, there is a tough fight between TMC and BJP, but the TMC is going to win as the party cadre is working on the ground for the last 2 years. Suvendu Adhikari has left TMC but it may not dent the party's position in the 20 assembly seats of the Nandigram region, because in the internal survey of TMC, there was a major anti-incumbency against the MLAs of the Adhikari panel and the party had already decided to deny them the tickets due to which Suvendu Adhikari had left the party and joined the BJP.

After the elections:

What is the reason for the TMC's victory?

1. A narrative-influenced common man:

(from outside West Bengal)

All the Muslim voters came together in favour of TMC, apart from that, we all know how Mamata Banerjee fights any election. The goons of TMC are good at booth capturing and fearing the public, due to which the people voted for TMC. 

2. A mainstream media journalist -

It's the magic of Prashant Kishor. He had already said that the BJP wouldn't cross the 100 mark. I think our team and surveyors didn't reach the internal regions of rural as well as the urban areas where it was a TMC wave. Now Mamata Banerjee will expand in more states and become a national-level competitor as well as the opposition's face for 2024.

3. A political analyst or psephologist-

TMC has won not only because of its ground-level cadre who has been active since 2019, but also because the BJP had given tickets to those who left TMC, as these leaders were already losing in TMC's internal surveys. This means the BJP gave tickets to those who were already denied the candidature when in TMC. Also, the BJP's campaign was too negative and propaganda based against Mamata Banerjee, which benefitted her.

Here we can see that the pre and poll election analysis of a narrative-influenced common man as well as a mainstream media journalist is contrary, while in case of a political analyst, it's the same.

Similarly, in case of Uttar Pradesh elections, a common man and even the mainstream media was saying Yogi Ji will win but with a loss, Samajwadi Party is a family-dominated party, its leaders are corrupt, people will vote for development and Hindutva, they will vote for Modi and Yogi.

But the political analysts or psephologists were clearly saying that the Samajwadi Party will gain but won't cross the majority mark because its ground level connect is way much weaker as compared to that of the BJP. The political analysts were even clearly saying that if the BSP's vote share comes below 10%, then it will be 175+ for SP, but if more than 10%, then the SP alliance will be somewhere between 130-140. 

So, even in Uttar Pradesh, the pre and post-election analysis of the psephologists went practically correct. Though the numeric prediction of a common man and mainstream media also went correct, but when they were asked about the reasons for the BJP's victory, they were stuck on Hindutva-Modi-Development.

But can we completely rule out the number of deaths in UP and the dead bodies buried in Ganga? Can we completely rule out unemployment? Can we completely rule out the farmers' protest? No. These were the issues and still are. We can neither rule out these issues in the case of West Bengal for Mamata Banerjee. 

But then the question arises, What is the reason behind the TMC's victory in West Bengal and the BJP's victory in Uttar Pradesh? 

The answer can be divided into three major points, in this sequence:

1. Active cadre on ground level: The BJP's cadre in Uttar Pradesh was active on the ground since 2019, while the SP cadre activated just 3 months before the elections. Same in the case of TMC, whose cadre was active on the ground since 2019, but the BJP gave more importance to those who were denied the ticket in TMC, and the original cadre of the BJP was being ignored.

2. Strong social media team with regional outreach: The BJP in Uttar Pradesh and the TMC in West Bengal has a stronghold over their social media outreach, while the SP in Uttar Pradesh and the BJP in West Bengal were seen as narrative-less, with an extremely negative campaign against the major opponents (Yogi in UP and Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal), but the Mamata Banerjee's or TMC's social media narrative was way much effective with "Khela Hobe" punch line and song.

3. Perception and face: A perception was created in UP, that no matter what, Yogi is winning, Samajwadi Party is a pro-Muslim party, Akhilesh only thinks about the welfare of his family and Yadav section, only Yogi is Upyogi, everyone speaking against Yogi/Modi is left/opposition-funded be it the unemployed youth, farmers, etc. Similarly in West Bengal, perceptions like Bengali Vs Gujarati, an alone lady (Mamata Banerjee) Vs all, Bengal's daughter, etc were created in favour of Mamata Banerjee. 

Then comes the other factors like Hindutva, good governance, law & order, development etc. These are the only issues which trend in the mainstream media and upto some higher sections, but the "behind-the-curtains" strategy of any political party is the actual reason for its performance in any election (like free distribution of 5 kg ration which is not the only but one of the major strategies of the BJP).

On BJP's victory in Uttar Pradesh, voters from Bengal or the other non-Hindi states think that it's due to the state officials and machinery, as over 45 seats have been won with less than a margin of 2,000 votes. Apart from that, the BSP and AIMIM had divided the voters, due to which the SP alliance lost. Yes, these may be the reasons, but these are not the only reasons for the SP's defeat in Uttar Pradesh. If you even consider these reasons, still the SP alliance would get 175-185 seats and the BJP somewhere between 205-215. 

While, on TMC's victory, a common voter from Uttar Pradesh believes that it's due to the coming-together of the Minority voters in favour of TMC, the booth capturing and other illegal ways carried out by the TMC workers, and Prashant Kishor magic. Though, when asked about the PK magic, they failed to elaborate anything. 

Whereas in West Bengal, the BJP is in its decline phase now with a lot of leaders like Mukul Roy and Babul Supriyo shifting to TMC, demoralizing its ground-level cadre, while in Uttar Pradesh the scenario is different. If Akhilesh Yadav focuses on ground/booth level, SP may improve its tally as compared to the 2019 results, though, if Shivpal Yadav joins the BJP, it may affect the SP on 2-3 Lok Sabha seats, and there are no chances for Congress (except Raebareli and Amethi) and BSP (Dr. Ambedkar Nagar).

In 2018, the Congress party won in MP, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan with a landslide victory, but faced a humiliating defeat in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Similarly in 2015, the RJD won 80 assembly seats in Bihar as a part of Mahagathbandhan but wasn't able to win even one seat in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. 

Similarly in 2003, the BJP had won Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan, but in 2004 Lok Sabha Elections, the UPA did a comeback after three consecutive defeats.

So, can we say that the BJP's victory in Uttar Pradesh has cleared its victory in 2024? Or can we say that the AAP's victory in Punjab will make it a national-level competitor of the BJP in 2024 and the same for Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal? Or can we say that the Congress Party will be completely finished or wiped out from the map of India? 

Well, none of these questions can be answered currently because we don't know what would happen in the next 2 years. But yes, one thing is predictable, the party that works on the ground level will have a clear upper edge in 2024. For the opposition, especially the Congress Party, it would be difficult to challenge the BJP in 2024 if the party continues functioning the same way it's doing now and activates just a few months before the elections. But if it starts preparing today for 2024, the scenario may change, because everyone knows that the BJP had won 18 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal in 2019, and in 2024 it would suffer a huge loss. Similarly in Maharashtra, the Congress-NCP-Shivsena alliance has a strong social combination which would be a big challenge for the BJP, and similar situation may arise in Haryana and Chattisgarh too, together bringing it down from 303 to somewhere between 280-290. 

In such case, the Congress Party has to increase its tally from 52 to just 100, so as to bring the BJP below the majority mark, which is possible but only if the party starts working from today and do major changes from organization to the national level, working style etc.

So, yes we can say that the BJP is stronger than any other political party at the moment, and in case of numbers, it would still be way much more than that of the Congress party, but if the Congress party wins just 100 or 110 Lok Sabha seats, the complete scenario would be changed, similar to that of the 2004 Lok Sabha elections.